Most of the stock analyst said stock market will be in BULL market until end of this year, they have always advice people to buy stock even when the stock has come to the high level. And they have always increased the target price of the stock so that more and more people will be attracted to buy particular stock. So, when will BULL market end for stock market? How long will BULL market sustains?
From our observation, stock market has losing its energy gradually and this situation will be more obvious when it comes to July, August and September 2011. Stock market will be gradually going down by July. Stock market will be dropping more and more by the month of August and September.
Anyone who has stock in hand sure will be thinking this is a joke as they won''t believe stock market will be going down soon. Besides, most of the individual investors prefer to hear good news rather than bad news.
When somebody say market is great in coming few months, they feel excited and buy more and more shares. So,how true is this news? Should I sell all my stock now or keep until end of this year? Come and visit us at www.beststocks.asia or info@beststocks.asia to get some useful advice.
Best Stocks Analysis, Find out popular stock at low price, news & more. Buy or sell stock ? Email to us, get professional advice.
We are looking for serious and legal business partner for share investment, please email to info@beststocks.asia
Related article - Strategist Wary On Equities Despite the recent market rally, Andrew Freris, a senior investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, remains wary on equities, which he is recommending clients to “progressively underweight”. While Europe’s debt crisis is abating, the lingering fiscal deficit problems of other G3 nations, such as the US and Japan, may cause similar havoc to their economies, leading to financial market instability, should investors start to lose confidence in the countries’ ability to service their national debts, says Freris, who has been watching global economic cycles over the past four decades. A reduction in fiscal spending will inevitably lead to the economic slowdown of a belt-tightening nation, he says. “European economies are almost certain to enter a period of rapid deceleration, because Europe decided to focus heavily on reducing its fiscal deficit. The Greeks have introduced the mother of all tightening. The Germans, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese are also tightening. All across Europe, both major and minor economies are on a fiscal tightening mode.” He points out that the Japanese government is also mulling measures to reduce their burgeoning fiscal deficit. The only big nation bucking that trend is the US. Despite its trillion-dollar public debt, the Americans are planning to widen their fiscal deficit to further stimulate the economy, whose current outlook looks uncertain, he says. “The recent (US economics) statistics are by no means clear and the administration is now indicating that they will spend more. Whatever fiscal stimulus they have given the economy over the past 1½ years is now petering out. The US economy is now slowing down,” he says, adding that although the US economy looks healthy, it is not self-sustaining and needs more fiscal stimulus. He says the problem facing the spendthrift US government, which already has mounting debts, is that the “issue of fiscal deficit” will sooner or later surface there as it did in Europe. “It is funny that fiscal deficit became the issue in Europe but not in the US.”
Furthermore, while interest rates in the G3 nations are likely to stay low for another year or so, it is highly probable that rates will move higher in 2H2011. A loose monetary policy is unsustainable when a government needs to borrow more, he says. “If you borrow more, that pushes long-term interest rates up. The markets aren’t stupid. When the markets wake up to the fact that the fiscal deficit in the US was US$400 billion (RM1.26 trillion) pre-crisis and is now US$1.2 trillion and rising, interest rates will move up like (they did) in Europe.” He adds that when the markets started to worry about the sovereign debt capacity of economies like Greece and Spain, interest rates in those countries went “through the roof” and recreated chaos for financial markets. A similar scenario could occur in the US. That’s why the bearish Freris remains wary of asset classes, such as equities and government bonds, of the developed nations.
Of late, global equities - measured by the MSCI World Index - have rebounded strongly, surging more than 8% since the start of July as risk-aversion abates. Institutional investors have also increased their exposure to stocks in recent weeks.
Still, Freris - looking at the big picture and taking a medium-term, top-down view - is sceptical about the sustainability of the current short-term rally. “We have to understand the medium-term trend to make some kind of sense in terms of investment opportunities,” he says. Uncertainties over global economic growth and worries about fiscal deficits of developed countries will continue to create huge volatility for global equities, he foresees. “That’s why we are getting progressively negative on equities. We are not going to sell everything, but we would be progressively moving to underweight equities.”
For investors who want to maintain significant exposure to stocks, he suggests they look for relative value. His recommendation, in a nutshell: “Although we are moving away from equities, we prefer US equities to those of Europe or Japan. (In terms of regions), we prefer developing to developed markets. Within developing markets, we like Asia compared with the rest. And in Asia, we prefer China and South Korea.” Despite medium-term concerns about the country’s growing fiscal deficit, Freris reckons stocks in the US look like a safer bet than those in Europe at the moment. “The EU is going through fiscal tightening while the US is going to further ease its fiscal policies (at the same time) guaranteeing interest rates are going to stay low in the near future. This is supportive of equities in the US. Yes, it is not going to stay like that forever, but for the time being, we prefer US equity markets to the European markets.”
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