With current vaccine technology a vaccine cannot save us from a pandemic of contagious bird flu.
Although criticized as fearmongering, the ABC made for TV movie First Contact: Bird Flu in America was overly optimistic. Neither us nor the French nor anybody else is going to development and manufacture a vaccine within two months using the technology of the past 50 years.
First, work on a highly targeted vaccine against a specific strain of contagious bird flu cannot even begin until that specific strain of bird flu comes into existence.
Researchers are working on vaccines against current strains of H5N1, and these may have some effect on curbing a contagious strain, because they'd be similar, but not the same.
After getting samples of the contagious form of H5N1, the virus makers begin creating the vaccine from dead viruses. It must be tested for safety and approved for use in humans. This takes time.
After the vaccine is ready, doses of it must be produced. Each dose of the vaccine is grown inside one egg.
The entire process takes 6 to 8 months to produce ordinary winter flu shots. And we know from 2004 that sometimes batches of vaccine are contaminated, and there's a shortage of the ordinary flu vaccine.
Bird flu will create other problems. It's believed that people will need two doses of a vaccine against it for full protection. Therefore, to vaccinate everyone in the United States will require 600 million eggs.
Where will all those eggs come from? The world is destroying chickens by the millions now, to control the spread of H5N1 in the chickens. It could take months to come up with enough eggs to grow the vaccine doses in sufficient quantity to stop the spread of the pandemic just in the United States.
And of course the rest of the world will also be clamoring for the vaccine, and overseas companies will also be manufacturing it, using up all the eggs they have available.
Therefore, Health and Human Services head Michael Leavitt has said it would be six months before an effective and precisely target bird flu vaccine would be ready after the pandemic began.
And remember that the 1918 flu spread throughout the world and killed from 20 to 100 million people in the days before jets connected countries and four-lane highways connected cities within countries. People travel much more and much farther and much more quickly now than in 1918.
And yet the worst of the 1918 flu happened in just three months.
And remember also that H5N1 will remain a virus that mutates quickly. After it becomes highly contagious, it will not stop mutating.
By the time we've designed and approved a vaccine against the original contagious form of the virus, there'll be slightly different strains infecting people.
Six months later, the H5N1 virus will be much different than it was at the beginning of the pandemic.
Producing and distributing to millions of frightened people a vaccine that's precisely targeted toward the virus killing people right now is like shooting at a moving target.
Only we cannot guess where the target is going to go to next.
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